Electoral Consequences Of Historical Cleavages And Migration: A Geographic Discontinuity Approach

Official URL: https://risc01.sabanciuniv.edu/record=b3200009

This thesis examines the long-term effect of forced migrations and historical cleavages on electoral behavior by comparing the cases of Turkey and Poland. Employing aggregate-level historical census data, it seeks to explain the effect of population transfers after the First and Second World Wars on the relationship between forced migrations and electoral behavior, as well as historical cleavages. The findings suggest that a higher migrant population share decreases the probability of voting for conservative and right-wing populist parties in Turkey and Poland. The constituting mechanism behind the relationship between forced migrations and electoral behavior in both countries is related to the characteristics and preferences of migrant populations. The incoming migrant groups are more skilled/educated or tend to obtain portable assets such as education, which increases human capital accumulation and improves economic outcomes. The differences between the two cases are explained through the composition of migrant groups, historical accounts, and cleavages. While Poland experienced an imperial past under Prussia, Austria, and Russia, Turkey had a significant Greek population. Moreover, the destination of migrants is more homogenous in the Polish case, while Balkan migrants in Turkey are dispersed along the transportation lines and Greek settlements. Thus, the comparison reveals that the historical cleavages and composition of migrants have a modifying effect on the relationship between forced migrations and electoral behavior.