The role of refugee flows and porous borders in shaping voting behavior: an analysis from Turkish elections

Official URL: https://risc01.sabanciuniv.edu/record=b2486551_(Table of contents)

This study brings an alternative explanation to the repercussions of what is known as a refugee crisis. Despite hosting millions of refugees for years, the studies that analyze the Turkish case conclude that the refugee influx did not affect the voting behavior of citizens substantially. Examining the effect of refugees on the votingbehavior of local citizens in Turkey, the study supports the existing studies in the literature on immigration from the European countries by showing that governments are severely punished due to their failure in controlling cross-border mobilizations. However, this punishment mechanism might not be ubiquitous in a country. Borrowing from the literatures on spatial-proximity and border, this thesis argues that proximity to the Syrian border mitigates the detrimental effect of refugees. The salience of security issues alongside the border triggers a rally ’round-the flag effect and the absence of cultural-similarities with the refugees prevent increasing prejudice in the border-cities. As an outcome, the local citizens are more likely to side with the government. Moreover, this thesis confronts the one-size-fits-all approach in the theoretical framework of immigration effects. As suggested, local citizens do not always shift toward extreme-right wing parties. Taking advantage of the lack of alternative options, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) has defended restrictive immigration policies since the eruption of the Syrian civil war. Surely, the consistent opposition to the government in other policy areas has been a determinant, but the policy stance of CHP in the migration issue has mobilized voters as well. Analyzing the vote shares of AKP and CHP in the electoral-district level, this thesis supports the above-explained trends. On the other hand, due to the possible ecological fallacy in aggregate-level analysis, using CSES Modules 4 and 5, the study tests the same hypotheses at an individual level. The individual-level findings support the aggregate-level findings such that increasing refugee rates are associated with a higher probability of voting for CHP in the distant cities whereas in the proximate cities refugees do not play a role in shaping citizens’ voting behavior