The interaction of conflict, ethnicity, and electoral behavior

Official URL: https://risc01.sabanciuniv.edu/record=b2748996_(Table of contents)

This thesis examines the effect of civil conflict on electoral behavior by comparing the Turkish and Peruvian cases. Employing aggregate-level conflict and electoral data, it seeks to explain the effect of the cleavage type on the relationship between conflict and voting behavior. Both empirical chapters delve into the effect of civil conflict on voter turnout, and the vote shares of the insurgent-affiliated and incumbent parties. The findings suggest that an increase in the level of conflict decreases voter turnout due to an increase in the cost of voting in both Turkey and Peru. The effect of conflict on popular support for the insurgent-affiliated party in Turkey is positive in high conflict regions. However, the insurgency-associated party loses electoral support as the level of conflict increases in Peru. Lastly, the incumbent’s vote share increases as the level of conflict increases in Turkey while this effect is statistically insignificant in the Peruvian case. The differences between the two cases are explained from the perspective of social identity theory and different natures of conflict in these countries. While the conflict in Turkey is ethnicity-based, that in Peru is ideology- and class-based. Thus, the comparison reveals that the cleavage type has a modifying effect on the relationship between conflict and electoral behavior.