Voter mobilization in the 2018 Turkish general election

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003166047-9

In this chapter, we analyze voter mobilization through canvassing prior to the 2018 general election in Turkey. Drawing on the nationally representative post-election sample of the 2018 Turkish Election Study (TES) survey, we find that the incumbent Justice and Development Party (AKP) is by far the party with the most contact with voters – about 7% of our sample reports being visited by the AKP ahead of the election. This figure is about the same as the total voter contacts of the four opposition parties in parliament combined. Next, we focus on who is targeted by the AKP. We find that partisans of the AKP and its ideologically close competitors are more likely to be visited, and those with lower levels of education and higher levels of interest in politics. Our results also highlight that voters in more competitive districts and districts with municipalities controlled by the AKP are more likely to be targeted. Overall, these results suggest that the AKP uses voter visits to help ensure high turnout among its actual and potential supporters in competitive districts, and the control of the local municipality facilitates these efforts.