Conflicts and elections: When is domestic diversion more likely to occur?

Official URL: https://risc01.sabanciuniv.edu/record=b2578322 _(Table of contents)

This thesis examines the relationship between conflicts and elections with a limited focus on domestic conflicts. It seeks to explain which factors affect the likelihood of domestic diversion and, specifically the effect of domestic diversion on electoral outcomes. The first empirical chapter investigates the interactive effect of mobilization type of minorities and election timing on leaders’ propensity to initiate domestic diversion. The findings suggest that mobilization type matters during election years. While non-militant minorities are less likely to be targeted by domestic diversion during election years, militant minorities are more likely to be the target when macroeconomic conditions in a given country worsen during election years. The second empirical chapter investigates the effect of domestic diversion on voting behavior. To analyze the electorates’ reaction to domestic diversion, it focuses on the period between two consecutive elections in Turkey, i.e., June and November 2015. Turkey had witnessed rising terror and conflict between the two elections. CSES Module 4 data are utilized in this chapter. The findings demonstrate that with the interview date approaching the last date of the field research, the survey respondents become more likely to state security as the most important problem (MIP). Consequently, those stating security as MIP are more likely to support the incumbent, if they are politically unsophisticated. While politically unsophisticates tend to be more sensitive to the “rally around the flag” effect, sophisticates tend to punish the incumbent.