Economic voting and relative importance of domestic and international reference points

Official URL: http://risc01.sabanciuniv.edu/record=b2313237_ (Table of contents)

This thesis examines the substitutive nature of the effects of relative domestic and international economic growth on incumbent vote share by using an extended crossnational dataset. The findings suggest that the positive marginal effect of relative domestic growth (international growth) on incumbent vote share is stronger when relative international growth (domestic growth) is lower. In other words, the use of domestic and international reference points by incumbents varies depending on the relative importance of these reference points. An equally important question this thesis seeks to answer is whether opponent party strength and ideological divergence between the opponent and the incumbent party are significant determinants of incumbent support. The empirical analyses suggest that opponent strength and party polarization have significant effects on incumbent vote share, but only after passing some threshold and for some particular economic conditions. Moreover, I check the validity of my findings from cross-national analyses in a case study on Turkey by employing individual-level data. The main findings from the in-depth case study reveal that partisan attitudes formed in the early political socialization process rather than economic evaluations determine voters’ party preferences. On the other hand, economic evaluations have a positive and significant impact on incumbent vote for voters with weak partisan attachment to the AK Party. However, since the number of those people is very small, we cannot talk about a substantive significance of economic evaluations on incumbent vote