How Violence In Mexico Has Propped Up The Adolescent Pregnancy Numbers

This thesis investigates the causal impact of the Mexican War on Drugs on adolescentfertility across Mexican municipalities from 2000 to 2019. While nationaladolescent birth rates have declined, localized surges in fertility persist in areasaffected by cartel violence and militarized state interventions. Using Difference-in-Differences and Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) methods, the study findsthat municipalities with entrenched cartel presence or strategic value to drug traffickingnetworks experienced a significant increase in adolescent fertility followingthe onset of the drug war. The analysis highlights a two-wave fertility response: aninitial rise in historically violent cartel strongholds and a delayed increase in regionslater incorporated into DTO logistics corridors, particularly with the expansion ofthe Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG). Spatial techniques, including MinimumSpanning Tree and DBSCAN clustering, reveal that these fertility shifts alignwith cartel infrastructure and geographic strategy. These findings underscore howcriminal governance and state militarization reshape demographic behavior and mayundermine human development in conflict-affected