Prediction error is out of context: the dominance of contextual stability in structuring episodic memories

Official URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.3758/s13423-025-02723-4

Our everyday experiences unfold continuously, yet we segment them into distinct memory units—a phenomenon known as event segmentation. Although extensively studied, the underlying mechanisms of event segmentation remain controversial. This study addresses this by comparing the two contrasting theories: prediction error and contextual stability. Across four experiments, we manipulated these factors separately to examine their distinct impacts on event segmentation, measured by temporal order and distance tasks. Experiments 1–3 demonstrate that contextual stability leads to more pronounced event segmentation than prediction errors in unstable contexts, underscoring its critical role. Experiment 4 further supported this by providing strong evidence for equally robust event segmentation for predicted and unpredicted transitions across stable contexts. We conclude that contextual stability plays a pivotal role in driving event segmentation, outweighing the effect of prediction errors. This study sheds new light on how our minds encode continuous experiences into coherent and meaningful memory units.