Perceptions on social assistance dependency and voting behavior

Official URL: https://risc01.sabanciuniv.edu/record=b3199897

This thesis examines the relationship between voters’ perceptions of social dependency and their policy expectations. The distribution of state resources does not always follow universalist principles, and voters may not perceive social assistance as a right for all citizens. Instead, voters might believe that the benefits they receive depend on the incumbent’s survival. When this is the case, voters may develop a perception of dependency that affects their political behaviors and attitudes. Using survey data before the Turkish Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, this research aims to examine this relationship. Using the General Full ML Estimator, this research provides empirical evidence on the effect of perceived dependency on the policy expectation. Empirical findings suggest that social assistance beneficiaries consider the continuity of their assistance in their voting decision and update their policy position in the same direction as the incumbent when the incumbent’s policy position is presented. Moreover, perceived dependency increases responsiveness to the policy promises of both the incumbent and the opposition elites. Voters who perceive themselves as dependent on social assistance are more likely to adjust their policy position in the same direction as the political elites.