To vote or not to vote? Affective polarization and voter turnout in Turkey

Official URL: https://risc01.sabanciuniv.edu/record=b2748685_(Table of contents)

This thesis examines the effect of affective polarization on voter turnout in Turkey. Although the relationship between affective polarization and voter turnout has been examined in consolidated democracies, this thesis contributes to the literature by testing this relationship beyond established democracies. In addition, if party identification is an explanation for voter turnout, this thesis also examines whether the positive effect of party identification on voter turnout is conditional on varying levels of affective polarization. The theoretical framework of this thesis builds upon Social Identity Theory. Therefore, affective polarization and party identification are treated as the results of social identities which reflect the long-lasting social cleavages in Turkey. Affective polarization is defined as the extent to which voters have positive and negative feelings toward different political parties and is measured based on party and leader feeling thermometers. To test the hypotheses, this thesis employs Modules 3 to 5 of CSES data which include 3 post-election surveys in Turkey. The analyses present empirical evidence for the main hypothesis of the relationship between affective polarization and voter turnout. On the other hand, the second hypothesis which expects that the positive effect of party identification on voter turnout is conditional on higher levels of affective polarization is not supported by empirical findings. In fact, empirical findings present that the effect of partisanship on voter turnout decreases when affective polarization increases.