The cost-effectiveness analysis of transition from BRT system to bi-articulated trolleybus system in İstanbul

Official URL: http://risc01.sabanciuniv.edu/record=b2290266_ (Table of Contents)

Air pollution in Istanbul, which has reached the highest level of recent years, and high operational costs of diesel buses which are heavily dependent on imported fuel are of great concern. This thesis aims to investigate whether the trolleybus investment is viable in terms of economic, environmental and social aspects, if diesel buses operating on the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) line of Istanbul, which annually make approximately 70 million kilometers, were replaced by trolleybuses. In addition to financial assessment of the investment, the following questions are examined: What will be the marginal cost of reduction in CO2, CO, NOx, THC, and PM? Which potential environmental life-cycle (LC) impacts from diesel fuel and electricity consumed during vehicle operation will be created? Life-Cycle Analysis is an extensive analysis technique to examine how products or processes affect the environment, by considering all the inputs and outputs throughout their life-cycle. The marginal cost assessment shows that trolleybus results in net saving of EUR 97.8 Million in terms of Net Present Value of cash outflows discounted at 10.5%. Moreover, in 2018 electricity generation conditions, global warming potential will be decreased by 35%, acidification potential will be grown by 1.9, eutrophication potential and photochemical oxidants creation potential will be 11.7 times and 2.7 times more, respectively. There is always a trade-off between separate LC impact categories and scenario analysis shows that the environmental LC impacts improve as the electricity grid mix becomes more renewable-oriented. Therefore, LC impact intended to be reduced should be considered for transition to trolleybus.