Which logistics performance indicator influence export most? A scenario analysis based approach

This study aims to investigate the relationship between logistics performance and exports and attempts to answer the question of which logistics indicators especially influence the country’s export level. For this purpose, a scenario analysis-based approach is proposed to analyze the relationships between exports and the six indicators of the logistics performance index reported by World Bank every two years: customs, infrastructure, international shipments, logistics quality and competence, tracking and tracing, and timeliness. A novel mathematical model is proposed in order to find an eligible number of scenarios, and the results of this proposed model are used to determine the most important logistics performance indicators that influence the export level of the country. Finally, Turkey is selected as a case study, and possible scenarios are investigated for Turkey to suggest policy proposals in order to improve its export.