Effect of context and process on success of international mediation: a comparative study of mediation efforts in Cyprus and Northern Ireland conflicts

Official URL: http://192.168.1.20/record=b1304409 (Table of Contents)

The aim of the thesis is to explore the determinants of success in international mediation. While trying to answer the question of "what determinants affected the success or failure of international mediation in Cyprus and Northern Ireland conflicts?" a comparative case study method was used. George Mitchell's mediation effort in Northern Ireland as a success and Kofi Annan's mediation effort in Cyprus as a failure were compared under the Contingency Model of Mediation. Eight hypotheses which were put forward by Jacob Bercovitch and his colleagues after their quantitative study of 284 international mediation attempts were tested on these two cases. While making this comparative case study research, a triangulated data collection method was used. Firstly, various forms of documentary information were analyzed which include academic articles, evaluations of the same topic, books written on the topic. Secondly, focused interviews were conducted with NGO representatives, academics, policy makers and other experts on the issues. Lastly, two field trips were made to Cyprus and Northern Ireland during which direct observations were made for a better understanding of historical and behavioral factors affecting the process. The findings show that both of the cases meet the highest possibility of success only on three of the variables (out of eight) which are regime types, issues and strategies of the mediator. According to this conclusion, theoretically both of the mediation attempts are expected to be unsuccessful. However, in reality, one of them was successful while the other was not. Therefore, the determinants of success put forward by Bercovitch were not enough to explain the success of George Mitchell and failure of Kofi Annan. In last part of the thesis, additional determinants which were potentially affected the outcome of the mediation attempts in these two cases were listed. More research is needed to understand whether or not these additional determinants are effective on outcome of other international mediation efforts.