How to rejuvenate peace processes: insights from the field

Official URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1162/NGTN.a.72

Literature on the termination of intrastate armed conflicts has primarily focused on the conditions under which key protagonists agree on negotiated settlements, often treating peace processes as having a discrete endpoint rather than being a recurrent process. This article reconsiders this assumption by focusing on the concept of peace rejuvenation—periods in which conflict parties re-engage in dialogue/negotiation or publicly recommit to diplomacy after previous breakdowns. The analysis builds on and extends but also criticizes the “ripeness”/ “mutually hurting stalemate” (MHS) framework, which suggests that actors rejuvenate peace efforts only when they perceive continued conflict as more costly than compromise. While MHS offers a valuable insight for identifying moments conducive to negotiation, it falls short in explaining and operationalizing repeated returns to dialogue and disregards actors’ subjective evaluation. This article argues that peace rejuvenation arises not only from warring elites’ cost-benefit calculations but also from the interplay of domestic and international pressures, exogenous shocks (such as disasters and economic crises), and shifts in opportunity structures that reshape actors’ approach to peace. Drawing on qualitative insights from those who were directly involved in Mozambican, Filipino, and Indonesian peace processes, all of which are characterized as having experienced asymmetric civil wars and third-party involvement, this study develops a comparative framework for understanding peace rejuvenation. The analysis highlights how diverse actors, including mediators, business elites, and civil society organizations, as well as contingent events such as natural disasters, leadership transitions, or regional realignments, can catalyze renewed engagement. Yet it underscores that the translation of such disruptions into genuine windows of opportunity ultimately depends on state leadership’s willingness and capacity to recognize and act upon mutually enticing moments. By conceptualizing peace rejuvenation as a process of political and institutional renewal rather than as an isolated turning point, the article refines existing theories of ripeness and contributes to a more dynamic understanding of how protracted conflicts can generate successive opportunities for negotiated peace.