Regime change in Syria And the emerging Israel-Turkey conflict

Official URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/mepo.70019

This study examines the transformation of the eastern Mediterranean into a contested geopolitical arena following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Drawing on the framework of offensive realism, it explores the intensifying rivalry between Israel and Turkey, tracing how energy resources, maritime zones, and proxy alignments have evolved into a militarized contest for regional hegemony. Tel Aviv's efforts to assert dominance over the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and Syria—supported by the United States—are interpreted by Ankara as part of an encirclement strategy, rooted not only in strategic interest but in the ideological construction of the “promised land.” This has driven Turkey to adopt a doctrine that integrates military operations, maritime law, and alliances to counter what it perceives as a reordering of the post-Assad Levant. The analysis contrasts this trajectory with liberal governance theories and argues that potential venues for collaboration, such as the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, are being instrumentalized for exclusionary purposes. By situating energy securitization, territorial expansion, and ideological projection within realism, the article reframes the eastern Mediterranean not as a zone of cooperation but as a hardened front in a contest for power stretching from Gaza to the Euphrates.