MCMC for Bayesian estimation of differential privacy from membership inference attacks

Yıldırım, Ceren and Kaya, Kamer and Yıldırım, Sinan and Savaş, Erkay (2025) MCMC for Bayesian estimation of differential privacy from membership inference attacks. In: European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases, ECML PKDD 2025, Porto, Portugal

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Abstract

We propose a new framework for Bayesian estimation of differential privacy, incorporating evidence from multiple membership inference attacks (MIA). Bayesian estimation is carried out via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, named MCMC-DP-Est, which provides an estimate of the full posterior distribution of the privacy parameter (e.g., instead of just credible intervals). Critically, the proposed method does not assume that privacy auditing is performed with the most powerful attack on the worst-case (dataset, challenge point) pair, which is typically unrealistic. Instead, MCMC-DP-Est jointly estimates the strengths of MIAs used and the privacy of the training algorithm, yielding a more cautious privacy analysis. We also present an economical way to generate measurements for the performance of an MIA that is to be used by the MCMC method to estimate privacy. We present the use of the methods with numerical examples with both artificial and real data.
Item Type: Papers in Conference Proceedings
Uncontrolled Keywords: Bayesian estimation; Differential Privacy; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Membership Inference Attacks
Divisions: Center of Excellence in Data Analytics
Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences
Depositing User: Kamer Kaya
Date Deposited: 06 Feb 2026 12:00
Last Modified: 06 Feb 2026 12:00
URI: https://research.sabanciuniv.edu/id/eprint/53013

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