Alliance formation across clusters:Firm responses to aspiratıon gaps under market and technological uncertainty

Forming alliances beyond local clusters allows firms to access non-redundant knowledgeunavailable within their local network. Although prior research has exploredthe antecedents of between-cluster ties (BCTs), it has largely overlooked the role ofexternal uncertainty. This study addresses this gap, motivated by the rising prominenceof market and technological uncertainty and the growing call to integrate theseconditions into theories of strategic management. Under uncertainty, conventionalrisk analysis becomes less effective, and managers rely on heuristics that weigh bothinternal performance and external conditions. Under market uncertainty—wheredemand is volatile and attribution is ambiguous—managers heuristically give someweight to external, uncontrollable, and transient factors when interpreting underperformance,which reduces the urgency to engage in exploratory search. When performanceexceeds aspirations, market uncertainty is seen as an opportunity, promptingthe formation of BCTs to leverage success and buffer against potential downturns.Under technological uncertainty—where the direction of change is unpredictable andemerging technologies are difficult to evaluate—managers heuristically attribute underperformancepartly to external technological shifts, which suggests a misalignmentbetween current capabilities and future needs. This drives firms to form moreBCTs in search of novel knowledge to adapt. When performance exceeds aspirations,firms still pursue more BCTs to reinforce their position and influence the direction of technological change, though with less urgency. Using panel data from NorthAmerican public firms in 12 high-tech manufacturing industries (1990–2022), thestudy finds partial support for these hypotheses. The results show that market uncertaintyamplifies the formation of BCTs when firms exceed their social aspirations.These findings contribute to the interorganizational network literature by clarifyinghow external uncertainty influences alliance behavior and network dynamics, andextend the firm’s behavioral theory to uncer