A new energy-economy-environment modeling framework: insights from decarbonization of the Turkish power Sector towards net-zero emission targets

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Kat, B. and Şahin, Ümit and Teimourzadeh, S. and Tör, O. B. and Voyvoda, E. and Yeldan, A. E. (2024) A new energy-economy-environment modeling framework: insights from decarbonization of the Turkish power Sector towards net-zero emission targets. Energy, 302 . ISSN 0360-5442 (Print) 1873-6785 (Online)

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Abstract

The power sector plays a crucial role towards decarbonization for many economies, especially in line with the net-zero targets to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Technical constraints intrinsic to the sector, penetration of new technologies, investment and operational costs, and its connections with the rest of the economy make the power sector a complex system to analyze. Although there are numerous studies to integrate bottom-up power sector technology models with top-down macroeconomic models, this study is the first attempt to link the three separate and interrelated models within a single framework: an electricity market simulation model, a generation expansion planning model, and an applied general equilibrium model. The proposed framework is implemented to analyze a feasible decarbonization scenario for Türkiye, with a particular focus on the power sector. The results suggest that, given the existing capacity and potential for renewables, Türkiye can achieve a coal-phase out by early 2030s, alongside a trajectory towards a full-fledged fossil fuel phase-out in power generation. The results also indicate that while installed capacity and generation of coal-fired power plants are reduced, real GDP and electricity demand can be maintained and the carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector could be reduced by as much as 50% in 2030 compared to 2018 levels.
Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Applied general equilibrium; Coal phase-out; Electricity market simulation model; Energy storage technologies; Fossil fuel phase-out; Generation expansion planning; Linear programming; Türkiye's power generation sector
Divisions: Istanbul Policy Center
Depositing User: Ümit Şahin
Date Deposited: 12 Jun 2024 15:13
Last Modified: 12 Jun 2024 15:13
URI: https://research.sabanciuniv.edu/id/eprint/49501

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