The role of energy efficiency obligations to accelerate Turkey's power system transformation

Compared to renewable energy sources, which have recently gained important ground in Turkey’s power system transformation, energy efficiency has long been at the centre of all strategies. Efficiency is one of the top-ranking local energy resources. The reason for this is the high diversity, low costs, and multiple secondary benefits of energy efficiency technologies and solutions. Our bottom-up analysis of Turkey’s power system shows potential for saving 10 % of total energy demand, equivalent to 49 terawatt-hours per year by 2030, compared to the government’s business-as-usual scenario which assumes significant energy efficiency improvements. Market-based policy mechanisms that include energy efficiency obligations (EEOs) and energy efficiency auctions can unlock an estimated 30 % of this potential by 2030. Such mechanisms are expected to result in net benefits ranging between EUR 1.1 and EUR 1.3 for each euro spent on improving energy efficiency. Turkey’s National Energy Efficiency Action Plan aims to implement market-based mechanisms before 2023, but they are currently at the policy design stage. In this process, Turkey can benefit significantly from the European Union’s (EU) experience with EEOs. Success factors in the EU include setting targets designed for specific end-use sectors, expanding the scope of mechanisms in line with experiences gained in their implementation, prioritising investments with short payback periods, maintaining consistency in how mechanisms are applied, developing processes for monitoring and verification and their management, and evaluation by independent national agencies. This study provides a first-order assessment of the impact of EEOs to improve the efficiency of electricity use in Turkey and outlines a framework for their design based on international experiences. The study concludes with recommendations for policy makers, electricity sector associations and financing institutions.