Spread of covid-19 in European countries: are stringencies effective? [Avrupa ülkelerinde covid-19'un yayılması: devlet politikaları etkili mi?]

Although European countries occasionally impose national border restrictions, Europe was one of the regions that is most affected by the pandemic, owing to the free movement of citizens across national borders since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, the spread of COVID-19 cases among countries and the effects of the stringencies imposed against COVID-19 within and between countries were investigated with consideration to five European countries with a large amount of COVID-19 cases, namely, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom (UK) by using Vector Error Correction Model. The data period covers the weekly data from March 27, 2020, to June 4, 2021. According to the results, the increase in the stringency index significantly reduced the number of COVID-19 cases per week after two weeks for France and Italy, and after three weeks for Spain. In other words, it takes about 2–3 weeks to observe the impact of a certain policy against COVID-19 on the number of recorded cases. In terms of the spread of COVID-19, cases in Germany and Italy were the most affected when there was a shock to cases in France. When there was a shock in cases in Germany, cases in Italy were the most affected. When there was a shock in cases in Italy, cases in Germany were the most affected. When there was a shock in cases in Spain, cases in Germany were the most affected. Finally, when there was a shock in cases in the United Kingdom, cases in Germany were the most affected. In summary, Germany and Italy appear to be the most negatively affected countries in Europe when COVID-19 cases increase. International travel, the health infrastructures of the country, and people's habit of using masks may cause this difference in countries.