Refugees and housing: evidence from the mortgage market

Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre and Hacıhasanoğlu, Yavuz Selim and Yılmaz, Fatih (2023) Refugees and housing: evidence from the mortgage market. World Bank Economic Review, 37 (1). pp. 147-176. ISSN 0258-6770 (Print) 1564-698X (Online)

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This paper investigates the impact of large-scale Syrian refugee inflows on the Turkish housing market. Employing a micro-level data set of the population of mortgaged houses in Turkiye between 2010 and 2017, it identifies the dynamic effects using a difference-in-differences approach. As the regional distribution of Syrian refugees is presumably not exogenous, it is instrumented in the estimations. The instrument is constructed using the distance from Turkish provinces to each Syrian region, while weighting each Syrian region by their population and distance to Turkiye compared to other destination countries. The results show that house prices increased in response to the arrival of Syrian refugees. The effects are mostly driven by low-priced housing and faded after 2014. The results further show that construction permits and sales increased, while the average age of purchased houses declined, indicating an increase in supply that may explain the fading-out effect over time. Finally, the findings provide suggestive evidence that houses that are sold after the arrival of refugees decline in size, which further points to a squeeze in the housing market for natives.
Item Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Academic programs > Economics
Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences
Depositing User: Yusuf Emre Akgündüz
Date Deposited: 09 Apr 2023 21:15
Last Modified: 03 Sep 2023 14:43

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