Alexiadis, Alessio and Albano, Andrea and Rahmat, Amin and Yıldız, Mehmet and Kefal, Adnan and Özbulut, Murat and Bakırcı, Nadi and Garzon Alvarado, Diego Alexander and Duque-Daza, Carlos Alberto and Eslava-Schmalbach, Javier Hernando (2021) Simulation of pandemics in real cities: enhanced and accurate digital laboratories. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 477 (2245). ISSN 1364-5021 (Print) 1471-2946 (Online)
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2020.0653
Abstract
This study develops a modelling framework for simulating the spread of infectious diseases within real cities. Digital copies of Birmingham (UK) and Bogota (Colombia) are generated, reproducing their urban environment, infrastructure and population. The digital inhabitants have the same statistical features of the real population. Their motion is a combination of predictable trips (commute to work, school, etc.) and random walks (shopping, leisure, etc.). Millions of individuals, their encounters and the spread of the disease are simulated by means of high-performance computing and massively parallel algorithms for several months and a time resolution of 1 minute. Simulations accurately reproduce the COVID-19 data for Birmingham and Bogota both before and during the lockdown. The model has only one adjustable parameter calculable in the early stages of the pandemic. Policymakers can use our digital cities as virtual laboratories for testing, predicting and comparing the effects of policies aimed at containing epidemics.
Item Type: | Article |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | COVID-19; discrete epidemiology; epidemiology; numerical modelling; particle-based methods |
Subjects: | R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine |
Divisions: | Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences > Academic programs > Materials Science & Eng. Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences > Academic programs > Manufacturing Systems Eng. Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences |
Depositing User: | Adnan Kefal |
Date Deposited: | 07 Sep 2021 21:08 |
Last Modified: | 18 Aug 2022 17:01 |
URI: | https://research.sabanciuniv.edu/id/eprint/41657 |
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Simulation of pandemics in real-cities: enhanced and accurate digital-labs. (deposited 20 Sep 2020 19:26)
- Simulation of pandemics in real cities: enhanced and accurate digital laboratories. (deposited 07 Sep 2021 21:08) [Currently Displayed]