Pre-election polls in Turkey

Aydaş, İrem (2020) Pre-election polls in Turkey. [Thesis]

[thumbnail of 10219391_Aydas_irem.pdf] PDF

Download (4MB)


The number of pre-election polls has considerably increased in the last decades. Such an increase is accompanied not only by methodological advances and obstacles but also by skepticism and criticism about the precision of the estimates and biases in favor of particular political parties or candidates. While scholarly interest in poll accuracy and quality has also grown considerably in many countries, scholarly work on pre-election polls in Turkey are scarce. This thesis aims to fill this gap by examining a total of 374 pre-election polls conducted after the official announcement of the general, presidential, and mayoral elections in Turkey that took place between 2011 and 2019. Using a revised CNN Transparency Index as a survey quality assessment tool, I find that reporting practices, as well as the designs of the pre-election polls, do not follow scientific standards in the examined cases, and many polls have larger errors than their calculated margins of error (assuming random sampling). Prior work on the poll accuracy suggests that poll aggregation produces more precise estimates by increasing the sample size and reducing errors in different directions. Although pre-election polls do not follow scientific standards, pooling the polls together by weighting the estimates based on (i) sample size, (ii) revised CNN score, and (iii) pollster experience provides a useful forecasting tool for election outcomes in line with theoretical expectations
Item Type: Thesis
Uncontrolled Keywords: Pre-election polls. -- Poll aggregation. -- Poll of polls. -- Survey error. -- Turkey. -- seçim anketleri. -- anketleri birlestirme. -- anketlerin anketi. -- anket hatası. -- Türkiye.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HM Sociology > HM1001-1281 Social psychology
Divisions: Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences
Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Academic programs > Conflict Analysis And Resolution
Depositing User: IC-Cataloging
Date Deposited: 02 Apr 2021 10:50
Last Modified: 26 Apr 2022 10:36

Actions (login required)

View Item
View Item