Instantaneous R for COVID-19 in Turkey: estimation by Bayesian statistical inference [Türkiye'de COVID-19 için anlık R hesaplaması: Bayesyen istatistiksel çıkarım ile tahmin]

Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5336/medsci.2020-76462

The instantaneous R in Turkey is estimated by Bayesian statistical inference that utilizes a 68-days-long dataset from the be- ginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in Turkey for monitoring the pro- gression of the pandemic. As it is also globally adapted, enforced social distancing measures help to keep the instantaneous reproduc- tion number below one. The low levels of instantaneous R are referred to as a basis for several countries to relax their country-wide restric- tions, while hindsight involves a possible second wave of infections to follow in China, Germany, and South Korea. Thus, policy and de- cision-makers need to be vigilant regarding the pandemic's progress. It is not yet sure if it is possible to maintain the instantaneous repro- duction number below one, especially at the lack of societal measures.