Civil conflict:Role of grievance and terrorism

Official URL: http://risc01.sabanciuniv.edu/record=b2313227_ (Table of contents)

In order to understand the role of grievance and terrorism in state-rebel conflicts, as an extension to Gibilisco’s (2016) manuscript, a two stage sequential game between two players is designed. Addition to having explained late separations of rebel groups and separations of all groups with varying initial grievance levels, equilibria of this game produced 2 testable hypotheses: First, use of terrorism enhances the chances of getting a concession or negotiation. Second, the conflicts i n w hich more terrorist attacks are conducted are likely to finish e a rlier. H aving t ested t he latter one, I finished my thesis by attempting to forecast the durations of ongoing conflicts, making use of contemporary machine learning algorithms.