Connecting logistics performance to export: a scenario-based approach

We propose a novel scenario analysis-based approach to investigate the relationship between logistics performance and exports at a country level. Different from the existing scenario analysis methods that contain subjectivity in measuring consistency, the proposed approach uses objective information rather than expert opinions. We propose a binary integer program to select significantly different, consistent and small number of efficient scenarios. On the basis of the selected scenarios, we develop a new approach for evaluating the performance of strategies across a series of scenarios. Furthermore, the proposed approach is used to analyse the relationships between exports and the six indicators of the logistics performance index (LPI): customs, infrastructure, international shipments, logistics quality and competence, tracking and tracing, and timeliness. With the help of these case studies, conducted for Turkey and four other selected countries, namely Burundi, Zimbabwe, Brazil and Portugal, the proposed method is proved to be generally applicable.