A neoclassical analysis of the 2001 crisis in Turkey

Türe, Elif Hatice (2008) A neoclassical analysis of the 2001 crisis in Turkey. [Thesis]

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In early 2001, Turkey experienced a severe economic crisis and many researchers attempted to qualitatively explain this downturn through analyzing the facts that caused the crisis and the effects it had on the economy. The focus of this paper is to complement these studies by quantitatively analyzing the economic fluctuations during the 2001 crisis in the light of the neoclassical growth theory. In this paper, it is shown that a standard dynamic stochastic small open economy model with exogenous productivity and real interest rate shocks, parameterized and calibrated to Turkish data from 1998 to 2006, is consistent with the observed features of fluctuations during the 2001 Turkish crisis. With both preference cases we consider, namely Cobb-Douglas and Greenwood- Hercowitz-Huffmann (GHH), the neoclassical model we adopted from [Otsu, 2008] predicts the contraction of the economy correctly. We examine the channels through which variables respond to productivity and interest rate shocks separately and find out that having both shocks together results in successful performance of both preference cases, except for labor in the GHH case and consumption in the Cobb-Douglas case. Although both cases successfully generate a countercyclical trade balance, GHH case performs better in generating a highly volatile consumption and Cobb-Douglas case performs better in capturing the modest shrink in labor.
Item Type: Thesis
Uncontrolled Keywords: Small open economy. -- Real business cycles. -- TFP. -- Country risk. -- Turkish 2001 crisis. -- Total factor productivity. -- Küçük ve dışa açık ekonomi. -- Reel konjonktür dalgalanmaları. -- Toplam faktör verimliliği. -- Ülke riski. -- 2001 krizi. -- Toplam faktör verimliliği. -- 2001 Türkiye krizi.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences > Academic programs > Economics
Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences
Depositing User: IC-Cataloging
Date Deposited: 15 Jul 2010 16:02
Last Modified: 26 Apr 2022 09:52
URI: https://research.sabanciuniv.edu/id/eprint/14141

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