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Simulation of pandemics in real cities: enhanced and accurate digital laboratories

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Alexiadis, Alessio and Albano, Andrea and Rahmat, Amin and Yıldız, Mehmet and Kefal, Adnan and Özbulut, Murat and Bakırcı, Nadi and Garzon Alvarado, Diego Alexander and Duque-Daza, Carlos Alberto and Eslava-Schmalbach, Javier Hernando (2021) Simulation of pandemics in real cities: enhanced and accurate digital laboratories. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 477 (2245). ISSN 1364-5021 (Print) 1471-2946 (Online)

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2020.0653

Abstract

This study develops a modelling framework for simulating the spread of infectious diseases within real cities. Digital copies of Birmingham (UK) and Bogota (Colombia) are generated, reproducing their urban environment, infrastructure and population. The digital inhabitants have the same statistical features of the real population. Their motion is a combination of predictable trips (commute to work, school, etc.) and random walks (shopping, leisure, etc.). Millions of individuals, their encounters and the spread of the disease are simulated by means of high-performance computing and massively parallel algorithms for several months and a time resolution of 1 minute. Simulations accurately reproduce the COVID-19 data for Birmingham and Bogota both before and during the lockdown. The model has only one adjustable parameter calculable in the early stages of the pandemic. Policymakers can use our digital cities as virtual laboratories for testing, predicting and comparing the effects of policies aimed at containing epidemics.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:COVID-19; discrete epidemiology; epidemiology; numerical modelling; particle-based methods
Subjects:R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
ID Code:41657
Deposited By:Adnan Kefal
Deposited On:07 Sep 2021 21:08
Last Modified:07 Sep 2021 21:08

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