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Instantaneous R for COVID-19 in Turkey: estimation by Bayesian statistical inference [Türkiye'de COVID-19 için anlık R hesaplaması: Bayesyen istatistiksel çıkarım ile tahmin]

Şenel, Kerem and Özdinç, Mesut and Öztürkcan, Didem Selcen and Akgül, Ahmet (2020) Instantaneous R for COVID-19 in Turkey: estimation by Bayesian statistical inference [Türkiye'de COVID-19 için anlık R hesaplaması: Bayesyen istatistiksel çıkarım ile tahmin]. Turkiye Klinikleri Journal of Medical Sciences, 40 (2). pp. 127-131. ISSN 1300-0292 (Print) 2146-9040 (Online)

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5336/medsci.2020-76462

Abstract

The instantaneous R in Turkey is estimated by Bayesian statistical inference that utilizes a 68-days-long dataset from the be- ginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in Turkey for monitoring the pro- gression of the pandemic. As it is also globally adapted, enforced social distancing measures help to keep the instantaneous reproduc- tion number below one. The low levels of instantaneous R are referred to as a basis for several countries to relax their country-wide restric- tions, while hindsight involves a possible second wave of infections to follow in China, Germany, and South Korea. Thus, policy and de- cision-makers need to be vigilant regarding the pandemic's progress. It is not yet sure if it is possible to maintain the instantaneous repro- duction number below one, especially at the lack of societal measures.

Item Type:Article
Additional Information:Scopus Document Type: Editorial
Uncontrolled Keywords:COVID-19; Turkey; epidemic models; Bayesian statistical inference; EpiEstim; coronavirus
Subjects:R Medicine > R Medicine (General) > R858-859.7 Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics
ID Code:40125
Deposited By:Didem Selcen Öztürkcan
Deposited On:15 Sep 2020 13:02
Last Modified:15 Sep 2020 13:02

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