Beyond homogeneity: discerning central Asian regionalism through UN General Assembly rhetoric

Official URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1163/15691330-bja10160

This study challenges reductionist interpretations of Central Asian regionalism by examining the rhetorical dynamics of national leaderships at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) from 1992 to 2024. Grounded in a robust pluralist framework that incorporates Social Identity Theory and Dramatism, the research conceptualizes regionalism as a continuous tension between the “centripetal forces” of shared geography and the “centrifugal forces” of distinct national development paths. Employing a novel mixed-methods approach – comprising BERTopic modeling, Asent sentiment analysis, and cosine similarity – the study reveals that Central Asian diplomatic signaling is defined by strategic heterogeneity rather than monolithic conformity. Empirical results demonstrate divergent national priorities: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan project stability and global leadership, whereas Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan prioritize internal security and developmental vulnerabilities, and Turkmenistan exhibits a pragmatic, high-variance neutrality. Crucially, similarity analysis uncovers a “pragmatic decoupling” where regional states share thematic overlaps with one another but maintain low rhetorical alignment with the UN Secretary-General and General Assembly President. These findings suggest that Central Asian regionalism functions not as a pathway to global homogenization, but as a survival mechanism where states utilize “multi-vectorism” to selectively engage international norms while safeguarding sovereign interests against external hegemons.