Economic outcomes predicted by diversity in cities

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Chong, Shi Kai and Bahrami, Mohsen and Chen, Hao and Balcısoy, Selim and Bozkaya, Burçin and Pentland, Alex 'Sandy' (2020) Economic outcomes predicted by diversity in cities. EPJ Data Science, 9 (1). ISSN 2193-1127

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-020-00234-x


Much recent work has illuminated the growth, innovation, and prosperity of entire cities, but there is relatively less evidence concerning the growth and prosperity of individual neighborhoods. In this paper we show that diversity of amenities within a city neighborhood, computed from openly available points of interest on digital maps, accurately predicts human mobility ("flows") between city neighborhoods and that these flows accurately predict neighborhood economic productivity. Additionally, the diversity of consumption behaviour or the diversity of flows together with geographic centrality and population density accurately predicts neighborhood economic growth, even after controlling for standard factors such as population, etc. We develop our models using geo-located purchase data from Istanbul, and then validate the relationships using openly available data from Beijing and several U.S. cities. Our results suggest that the diversity of goods and services within a city neighborhood is the largest single factor driving both human mobility and economic growth.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:Economic growth; Urban economy; Diversity; Interaction; Information flow; Consumer city; Huff gravity model
ID Code:40109
Deposited By:Selim Balcısoy
Deposited On:15 Sep 2020 11:45
Last Modified:15 Sep 2020 11:45

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