Global downside risk and equity returns
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Atılgan, Yiğit and Bali, Turan G. and Demirtaş, Özgür and Günaydın, Ali Doruk (2019) Global downside risk and equity returns. (Accepted/In Press)
This paper reexamines the relation between various downside risk measures and future equity returns in a global context that spans 26 developed markets. We find that there is no significantly positive relation between systematic downside risk and the cross-section of equity returns, and in fact, this relation is mostly negative. Moreover, stock-specific risk measures such as lower partial moment or extreme left tail risk measures such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall have a negative predictive relation with future equity returns. These negative relations are weaker but still observable for value-weighted portfolios. Focusing on additional test assets indicates a significantly negative relation between downside risk and future returns at the portfolio level whereas this relation is flat at the equity index level.
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