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Business cycles and cyclical behaviour of trade flows in Turkey

Erken, Muhammet Fatih (2011) Business cycles and cyclical behaviour of trade flows in Turkey. [Thesis]

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Official URL: http://192.168.1.20/record=b1379341 (Table of Contents)

Abstract

Turkey has a strongly countercyclical trade balance like other emerging market economies. De Bock (2010) claims that the procyclical behavior of capital good imports is an important factor driving the countercyclicality of the trade balance in emerging economies. This paper, following De Bock (2010), documents and analyzes the composition and cyclical properties of the trade balance in Turkey. The analysis of Turkish data shows that capital good imports are a sizable fraction of total imports and they are procyclical as in other emerging markets. Based on this observation, a two sector small open economy model, calibrated to Turkish data, is used to quantitatively analyze the role of import structure in driving the cyclical properties of the trade balance, as well as other business cycle properties. The model is able to generate a strongly countercyclical trade balance and also match the major business cycle regularities in the data.

Item Type:Thesis
Uncontrolled Keywords:Capital good imports. -- Emerging economies. -- Trade balance. -- Trade flows in Turkey. -- Developing markets. -- Dış ticaret dengesi. -- Gelişen ekonomiler. -- Sermaye malları ithalatı. -- Türkiye'de dış ticaret hareketleri. -- Gelişen piyasalar.
Subjects:H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
ID Code:20241
Deposited By:IC-Cataloging
Deposited On:14 Nov 2012 10:32
Last Modified:14 Nov 2012 10:32

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