Midstream concentration and geopolitical risk in critical mineral supply chains: a scenario-based assessment of refining chokepoints in the energy transition

Official URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105996

The global energy transition is increasing demand for critical minerals essential to low-carbon technologies, raising concerns regarding supply-chain concentration and long-term energy security. Using International Energy Agency (IEA) datasets covering 2024–2050, this study examines projected demand growth, mining and refining concentration, and potential chokepoint risks across three transition pathways: the Net Zero Emissions (NZE), Announced Pledges (APS), and Stated Policies (STEPS) scenarios. The analysis focuses on six strategically significant minerals—lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare earth elements (REEs), and copper—and evaluates concentration patterns using Top-3 Concentration Ratios (CR3) and selected Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) estimates. The findings indicate that refining concentration remains substantially higher and more persistent than mining concentration across most minerals and scenarios. Graphite, cobalt, lithium, and rare earth refining exhibit particularly elevated concentration levels, with several systems dominated by a limited number of actors. Accelerated decarbonization pathways substantially increase mineral demand without necessarily producing equivalent geographic diversification in refining capacity. The results further suggest that chokepoint risk depends not only on concentration itself, but also on asymmetry within refining systems, technological substitutability, and the pace of industrial diversification. Rather than treating these vulnerabilities as deterministic outcomes, the study emphasizes the role of industrial policy, recycling, technological adaptation, and international supply-chain coordination in shaping future concentration dynamics. More broadly, the findings suggest that the clean-energy transition may redistribute rather than eliminate certain forms of strategic dependency, particularly where refining capacity remains highly concentrated.