The role of external actors in constitution-making processes: The case study of Syrian post-conflict constitution-making process

Official URL: https://risc01.sabanciuniv.edu/record=b2578921_(Table of contents)

This research explores the external actors’ intervention in civil wars via mediation that relies on constitution-making as a strategy and how it may impact civil war duration. Constitution-making is increasingly used as a conflict transformation mechanism in reaching a negotiated settlement. To examine the role of external actors in constitution-making within the broader process of negotiated settlements and its effect on civil war duration, the thesis’ theoretical explanation draws from the bargaining framework, with its emphasis on commitment problems. First, based on the veto-player approach, I conduct a preliminary quantitative analysis on the effects of external actors’ intervention on the duration of civil wars by focusing on the number of mediators. Second, with a case study on Syria, I explore the role of external actors in the mediation and constitution-making efforts during the Syrian civil war. The quantitative analysis shows that the more actors involved in mediations, the longer the civil wars last; however, if the United Nations (UN) is one of those mediators, then the impact of the number of the mediators on civil war duration is weaker. Syrian constitution-making process, which is an outcome of two reinforcing mediation attempts, is used as a case study to examine the relationship between civil war duration and mediation by focusing on the constitution-making process that includes the UN and other external states, namely Russia, Turkey, and Iran. This research suggests that a mediation strategy led by multiple external actors that relies on constitution-making makes the bargaining process more difficult and thus lengthens the conflict duration.