The role of audience costs in Turkish hard and soft power foreign policy
Tec, Juan Javier (2014) The role of audience costs in Turkish hard and soft power foreign policy. [Thesis]
What role do domestic audience costs play across different types of foreign policy threats issued? Research on domestic audience costs—the domestic penalty a leader would face for making foreign threats and then backing down--provides direct evidence for the existence of audience costs for leaders who back down from hard power foreign policy threats, such as the threat to use militarized force. This thesis tries to understand the role of domestic audience costs across different foreign policy tools. Following Tomz (2007), I designed questionnaires that depict four different scenarios of hard and soft power foreign policy crises in the Turkish context. My findings indicate that Turkish citizens hold a leader more accountable for following up on threats regarding foreign policy tools of economic sanctions and border blockades. The public is less willing to punish reneging from both a more hard power tool--militarized force, and a softer foreign policy tool--the extension of foreign aid. These findings suggest that the level of audience costs differs across different foreign policy tools. In addition, I found that Turkish national security, international reputation, and its relationship with neighbors are important factors to Turkish respondents when making a decision about how the prime minister handled the situation. On the other hand, establishing Turkey’s leadership in its region was found to be the least important factor. Finally, evidence suggests that the main source of audience costs for the Turkish public emanate from their concern regarding national security and the international reputation of the country.
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