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Are road transportation investments in line with demand projections? A gravity-based analysis for Turkey

Ülengin, Füsun and Özaydın, Özay and Ülengin, Burç and Kopp, Andreas and Önsel Ekici, Şule and Kabak, Özgür and Aktaş, Emel (2013) Are road transportation investments in line with demand projections? A gravity-based analysis for Turkey. Transport Policy (SI), 29 . pp. 227-235. ISSN 0967-070X

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2013.07.002

Abstract

In this research, an integrated gravity-based model was built, and a scenario analysis was conducted to project the demand levels for routes related to the highway projects suggested in TINA-Turkey. The gravity-based model was used to perform a disaggregated analysis to estimate the demand levels that will occur on the routes which are planned to be improved in specific regions of Turkey from now until 2020. During the scenario development phase for these gravity-based models, the growth rate of Turkey's GDP, as estimated by the World Bank from now until 2017, was used as the baseline scenario. Besides, it is assumed that the gross value added (GVA) of the origin and destination regions of the selected routes will show a pattern similar to GDP growth rates. Based on the estimated GDP values, and the projected GVA growth rates, the demand for each selected route was projected and found that the demand level for some of these road projects is expected to be very low, and hence additional measures would be needed to make these investments worthwhile.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:Gravity-based model; Scenario analysis; Transport demand forecast; Turkey
Subjects:UNSPECIFIED
ID Code:22162
Deposited By:Füsun Ülengin
Deposited On:29 Nov 2013 15:40
Last Modified:29 Nov 2013 15:40

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