A new risk model and a decision support framework for urban hazmat transportation
Bozkaya, Burçin and Ak, Ronay (2009) A new risk model and a decision support framework for urban hazmat transportation. (Submitted)
Hazardous materials (hazmat) transportation in an urban area is a rather neglected area of research from the viewpoint of hazmat risk modeling and transportation planning. In this paper, we introduce a new risk model that we contend is more suitable as an arguably more realistic risk model in an urban setting. Our model takes into account population exposure around the traversal path of a hazmat-carrying vehicle and the duration of such exposure, the latter being somewhat variable due to congestions or otherwise highly variable traffic flow patterns in densely populated urban areas. Using a Geographic Information Sytem (GIS)-based decision support framework we have developed and hence introduced in this paper, we illustrate the results of our proposed risk model in comparison to other models that are commonly used in the context of long-haul hazmat transportation. Our results come from the city of Istanbul, Turkey, a densely populated city of approximately 12.5 million residents. The results suggest that the hazmat transportation routes generated by the proposed risk model may not always match with the general practices on how hazmat is transported within the boundaries of a populated urban area.
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